Family Dynamics of 63 Million (in 1990) to More Than 330 Million (in 2050) Elders in China

This paper confirms very rapid increase in proportion of elderly, huge numbers of elders, an extraordinarily rapid increase of oldest old, and more serious aging problems in rural than urban areas in China. Comparative data analysis on family dynamics of elderly, males vs. females, younger elders vs. oldest old, rural vs. urban, and 1982 vs. 1990 are presented. Family household projection reveals that the family and living arrangements of the Chinese elderly would change dramatically during the first half of 21 century. Drawing upon our empirical findings, we presented policy recommendations on strengthening family support system, establishing an old age insurance program in rural areas, favourable policy for elderly women in consideration of their disadvantaged status, and smoothly transiting to a two-child plus spacing policy. 1 Senior Research Scientist at the Center for Demographic Studies and the Department of Sociology of Duke University, Professor at the Institute of Population Research of Peking University, and a Distinguished Research Scholar at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. 2 Professor at the Department of Sociology and Associate Director of the Center for the Studies of Aging and Human Development at Duke University. Please send correspondence to: Prof. Zeng Yi, Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University 2117 Campus Drive, Durham, NC 27708 Tel. 919-6682704 (O); Fax: 919-6843861; E-mail: [email protected] Demographic Research Volume 2, Article 5 http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol2/5/ 5 May 2000